Dietary wisdom

Due to renovations we like to simply summarize our week with this amazing poem by Robert J. Wherry Sr., famous for his extensive contributions to statistical models for prediction and factor analysis as well as to Industrial and Organizational Psychology.

Note the date of the source. Having a tremendously larger amount of computational power at out disposal compared to back in 1975, notorious overfitting seems easier than ever before. Thankfully, not only do remedies exist but also solutions for spotting backtest overfitting.

Models are fine and statistics are dandy

But don’t choose too quickly just because they’re handy

Stick to a model that’s been through the mill

Don’t try something new just for the thrill

A new shiny model is full of allure

But making it work is no sinecure

The more complex the merrier does not follow

The voluminous output may be hard to swallow

Too many variables and too few cases

Is too much like duelling at ten pace

What’s fit may be error rather than trend

And shrinkage will get you in the end

Know what you’re doing and do it well

Replictable findings are easy to sell

Be willing to progress one step at a time

A counterfeit dollar’s worth less than a dime

Now that I’ve warned you I’m ready to stop

And let you get back to tending the shop